Iran > Key Myths > Economic Sanctions > The NIE found that outside pressure motivated Iran's decision to suspend its weapons and enrichment program
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Claim:

The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate opined that "outside pressure" was primarily responsible for Iran's decision in 2003 to suspend its nuclear weapons program as well as its enrichment efforts.1 This shows that economic sanctions can work.

Response:

The NIE does not support this conclusion with evidence of any kind, and Iran scholars tend to judge that factors other than economic sanctions were more influential in that decision:  America (briefly) seemed invincible then, and its forces were encamped next door to Iran.  Iran was governed by a reformist President who managed to persuade the Supreme Leader to give diplomacy a chance.

Whatever the explanation, the unique opportunity provided by the opening was squandered.  The Bush Administration responded with no compromise and no opening. Iran's top leadership clearly concluded that capitulation to pressure merely begets more pressure. Iran resumed enrichment and has been impervious to sanctions ever since.

Now, even hard core proponents of sanctions acknowledge that the current leadership may actually feel that conflict with the West empowers them domestically. 2

Footnotes

1. Director of National Intelligence, National Intelligence Estimate. Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities, November 2007, http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf. [back]
2. Matthew Levitt, “Minimizing Potential Threats from Iran: Assessing Economic Sanctions and Other U.S. Policy Options” (Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, July 20, 2009), http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC14.php?CID=475 ("That said, recent events suggest that Iran's current hardline leadership sees the pursuit of a nuclear program and ongoing tension with the West as positive things that support their primary objective: regime survival.") [back]